Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 0.003107 0.003399 0.003712 0.004070 0.004470 0.004905 0.005414
2025-12-28 0.002584 0.002991 0.003455 0.004026 0.004714 0.005520 0.006545
2026-01-04 0.002312 0.002779 0.003336 0.004056 0.004969 0.006103 0.007633
2026-01-11 0.002080 0.002574 0.003184 0.004004 0.005090 0.006498 0.008498
2026-01-18 0.001905 0.002415 0.003066 0.003968 0.005208 0.006882 0.009368
2026-01-25 0.001755 0.002273 0.002951 0.003917 0.005289 0.007209 0.010178
2026-02-01 0.001650 0.002179 0.002887 0.003925 0.005444 0.007643 0.011179
2026-02-08 0.001540 0.002068 0.002791 0.003875 0.005505 0.007938 0.011991
2026-02-15 0.001437 0.001959 0.002687 0.003803 0.005522 0.008161 0.012706
2026-02-22 0.001373 0.001900 0.002649 0.003822 0.005677 0.008606 0.013827
2026-03-01 0.001335 0.001876 0.002659 0.003914 0.005949 0.009259 0.015377
2026-03-08 0.001262 0.001796 0.002580 0.003859 0.005977 0.009510 0.016237
2026-03-15 0.001184 0.001706 0.002485 0.003778 0.005967 0.009712 0.017072
2026-03-22 0.001122 0.001636 0.002417 0.003738 0.006025 0.010042 0.018203
2026-03-29 0.001080 0.001596 0.002392 0.003765 0.006199 0.010595 0.019848
2026-04-05 0.001026 0.001533 0.002326 0.003718 0.006235 0.010895 0.021013
2026-04-12 0.000979 0.001479 0.002272 0.003685 0.006293 0.011239 0.022320
2026-04-19 0.000934 0.001424 0.002212 0.003639 0.006320 0.011524 0.023533
2026-04-26 0.000902 0.001389 0.002184 0.003646 0.006449 0.012023 0.025307
2026-05-03 0.000862 0.001341 0.002129 0.003600 0.006470 0.012303 0.026606
2026-05-10 0.000822 0.001289 0.002066 0.003534 0.006445 0.012481 0.027682
2026-05-17 0.000798 0.001264 0.002048 0.003552 0.006591 0.013041 0.029810
2026-05-24 0.000787 0.001258 0.002064 0.003636 0.006878 0.013947 0.033003